Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting Illini — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Southern Illinois Salukis 22%
Illinois Fighting Illini 77%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 34.0 vs 28.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
34.0 vs 28.6
+4.0%p
Head to head Southern Illinois Salukis Illinois Fighting Illini
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Allen Middleton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Collin Dixon receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyle Thomas receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Illinois Fighting Illini Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 34.0 vs 28.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 48/11 Hit
77% Both total runs 62.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 62.5 Under· Totals Under Southern Illinois Salukis Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/49 Miss
22% Winning margin8 Southern Illinois Salukis within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Southern Illinois Salukis within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 5.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
63% Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Southern Illinois Salukis within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Southern Illinois Salukis within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Allen Middleton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Collin Dixon receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyle Thomas receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Markell Quick receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyle Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chandler Chapman rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Katin Houser rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hudson Clement receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Robinson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Collin Dixon 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Allen Middleton 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Quade Chatmon rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aidan Laughery rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Katin Houser pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jake Curry pass yds 134.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hudson Clement 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Hudson Clement 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Katin Houser pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jake Curry pass yds 134.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aidan Laughery rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Quade Chatmon rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Katin Houser rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hudson Clement receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Robinson receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Collin Dixon 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Allen Middleton 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Chandler Chapman rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Collin Dixon receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyle Thomas receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Markell Quick receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyle Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Allen Middleton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Southern Illinois Salukis team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Illinois Fighting Illini team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Illinois Fighting Illini Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Illinois Fighting Illini Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Southern Illinois Salukis Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Southern Illinois Salukis Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.