Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy Trojans — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 7 (Wed) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Southern Miss Golden Eagles 20%
Troy Trojans 80%
Locked before start
Troy Trojans Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 80% Hit Troy Trojans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 79% Troy Trojans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 70% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-2 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1432 vs 1190 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.3 vs 24.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1432 vs 1190
+20.6%p Points per game
21.3 vs 24.5
-3.2%p
Head to head Southern Miss Golden Eagles Troy Trojans
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Noreel White receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under MJ Johnson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Troy Trojans Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1432 vs 1190 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.3 vs 24.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 55/35 Hit
80% Both total runs 45.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 45.5 Under· Totals Under Southern Miss Golden Eagles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 3-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/56 Miss
20% Winning margin8 Troy Trojans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Troy Trojans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
70% Troy Trojans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Troy Trojans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Noreel White receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under MJ Johnson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Steven Robinson rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mario Sanders receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TK Keyes receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under AJ Little receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gavin Griffin rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Howard Kinchen receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under AJ Little 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Goose Crowder pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaylen Foster rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Landry Lyddy pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under TK Keyes 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Mario Sanders 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Howard Kinchen 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Howard Kinchen 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Mario Sanders 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under TK Keyes 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Landry Lyddy pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Goose Crowder pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaylen Foster rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gavin Griffin rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Howard Kinchen receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over AJ Little 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over TK Keyes receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over AJ Little receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Steven Robinson rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mario Sanders receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Noreel White receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over MJ Johnson receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Southern Miss Golden Eagles team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Troy Trojans team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Troy Trojans Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Troy Trojans Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.