Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Tulane Green Wave — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Southern Miss Golden Eagles 15%
Tulane Green Wave 85%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1517 vs 1227 (50% blend)· Points per game 18.8 vs 24.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1517 vs 1227
+22.6%p Points per game
18.8 vs 24.5
-4.0%p
Head to head Southern Miss Golden Eagles Tulane Green Wave
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 65%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Bredell Richardson receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Brown-Stephens receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Tulane Green Wave Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1517 vs 1227 (50% blend)· Points per game 18.8 vs 24.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/22 Hit
85% Both total runs 43.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 43.5 Over· Totals Over Southern Miss Golden Eagles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/25 Miss
15% Winning margin8 Tulane Green Wave within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Tulane Green Wave within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Tulane Green Wave within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Tulane Green Wave within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 DH Destyn Hill 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
65% Bredell Richardson receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Destyn Hill receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Brown-Stephens receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Steven Robinson rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under AJ Little receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under MJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mario Sanders receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Foster rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kadin Semonza pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaylin Lucas rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Landry Lyddy pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Johnnie Daniels rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mario Sanders 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under AJ Little 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Anthony Brown-Stephens 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Anthony Brown-Stephens 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Mario Sanders 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over AJ Little 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Johnnie Daniels rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kadin Semonza pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaylin Lucas rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Landry Lyddy pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaylen Foster rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mario Sanders receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over AJ Little receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over MJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Destyn Hill receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Brown-Stephens receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Steven Robinson rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bredell Richardson receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Destyn Hill 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Tulane Green Wave team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Southern Miss Golden Eagles team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tulane Green Wave Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tulane Green Wave Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.