Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue Devils — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Stanford Cardinal 3%
Duke Blue Devils 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1667 vs 1333 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 21.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1667 vs 1333
+24.0%p Points per game
36.3 vs 21.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Stanford Cardinal Duke Blue Devils
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Caden High receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Robinson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Campbell Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Duke Blue Devils Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1667 vs 1333 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 21.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/8 Hit
97% Both total runs 57.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 57.5 Under· Totals Under Stanford Cardinal Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/36 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Duke Blue Devils wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 21.0 → expected margin 15.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
78% Duke Blue Devils wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 21.0 → expected margin 15.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
69% Duke Blue Devils wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Duke Blue Devils wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Stanford Cardinal within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Stanford Cardinal within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Stanford Cardinal within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Stanford Cardinal within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Caden High receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Robinson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Campbell Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaivon Solomon receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Benji Blackburn receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nate Sheppard rush yds 119.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jonah Burton receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sedrick Irvin rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Hasley receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caden High 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Micah Ford rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Benji Blackburn 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Walker Eget pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Hasley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jonah Burton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Michael Mitchell Jr. pass yds 84.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Hasley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jonah Burton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Michael Mitchell Jr. pass yds 84.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Walker Eget pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Benji Blackburn 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Micah Ford rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Hasley receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caden High 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nate Sheppard rush yds 119.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jonah Burton receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sedrick Irvin rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Benji Blackburn receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over CJ Campbell Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaivon Solomon receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zion Robinson receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caden High receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Duke Blue Devils team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Stanford Cardinal team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Stanford Cardinal Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Duke Blue Devils Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Stanford Cardinal Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Duke Blue Devils Team rush yds 274.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.