Stonehill Skyhawks at Massachusetts Minutemen — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Stonehill Skyhawks 3%
Massachusetts Minutemen 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 36.3 vs 16.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
36.3 vs 16.6
+4.0%p
Head to head Stonehill Skyhawks Massachusetts Minutemen
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Cole Clarke receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.Y. Harding 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Joseph Griffin Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Massachusetts Minutemen Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 36.3 vs 16.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 36/15 Hit
97% Both total runs 52.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 52.5 Under· Totals Under Stonehill Skyhawks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/37 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 16.6 → expected margin 19.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 16.6 → expected margin 19.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
80% Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Stonehill Skyhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Stonehill Skyhawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Stonehill Skyhawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Stonehill Skyhawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Cole Clarke receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.Y. Harding 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under T.Y. Harding receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Joseph Griffin Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylin Baker receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Shane Eason receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jabari Lewis receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Shane Eason rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aidan Garrett rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cole Clarke 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Curtis Kimmons IV rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Elijah Faulkner rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jack O'Connell pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under William Watson III pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Joseph Griffin Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylin Baker 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylin Baker 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over William Watson III pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Joseph Griffin Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jack O'Connell pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Elijah Faulkner rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Curtis Kimmons IV rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jabari Lewis receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Shane Eason rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aidan Garrett rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cole Clarke 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over T.Y. Harding receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Joseph Griffin Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylin Baker receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Shane Eason receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.Y. Harding 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Clarke receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Stonehill Skyhawks team runs 16.5 Over· Team Points Massachusetts Minutemen team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Massachusetts Minutemen Team pass yds 134.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Stonehill Skyhawks Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Massachusetts Minutemen Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Stonehill Skyhawks Team rush yds 79.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.