Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 17 (Thu) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Syracuse Orange 3%
Pittsburgh Panthers 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1687 vs 1290 (50% blend)· Points per game 39.3 vs 32.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1687 vs 1290
+25.7%p Points per game
39.3 vs 32.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Syracuse Orange Pittsburgh Panthers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 13x (per game 3.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Daunte Bacheyie receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Kent receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Pittsburgh Panthers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1687 vs 1290 (50% blend)· Points per game 39.3 vs 32.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/14 Hit
97% Both total runs 71.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 71.5 Under· Totals Under Syracuse Orange Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/28 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Syracuse Orange within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Syracuse Orange within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Syracuse Orange within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Syracuse Orange within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Pittsburgh Panthers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 CL Censere Lee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 13x (per game 3.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
64% Daunte Bacheyie receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Kent receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mason Heintschel rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cataurus Hicks receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Censere Lee receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Umari Hatcher receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Steve Angeli pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Justus Ross-Simmons receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Damon Ferguson Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mason Heintschel pass yds 249.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tylik Hill rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Shavane Anderson Jr. rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cataurus Hicks 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Umari Hatcher 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Darius Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Darius Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cataurus Hicks 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Umari Hatcher 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mason Heintschel pass yds 249.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tylik Hill rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Shavane Anderson Jr. rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Damon Ferguson Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Steve Angeli pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Justus Ross-Simmons receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Umari Hatcher receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mason Heintschel rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cataurus Hicks receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Censere Lee receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carson Kent receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Daunte Bacheyie receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Censere Lee 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Pittsburgh Panthers team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Syracuse Orange team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Syracuse Orange Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Pittsburgh Panthers Team pass yds 304.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Syracuse Orange Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Pittsburgh Panthers Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.