TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knights — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate TCU Horned Frogs 36%
UCF Knights 64%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1503 vs 1607 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 29.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1503 vs 1607
-4.1%p Points per game
36.3 vs 29.3
+4.0%p
Head to head TCU Horned Frogs UCF Knights
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 371yds (per game 92.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 68.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.99 → expected 67.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Landen Chambers rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josh Derry receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 TCU Horned Frogs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% UCF Knights wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ TCU Horned Frogs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 TCU Horned Frogs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UCF Knights wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ TCU Horned Frogs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 UCF Knights wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UCF Knights wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 UCF Knights Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1503 vs 1607 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 29.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/14 Hit
64% Both total runs 65.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 65.5 Under· Totals Under TCU Horned Frogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/22 Miss
36% player stat32 ES Ed Small receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 371yds (per game 92.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 68.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.99 → expected 67.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Landen Chambers rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josh Derry receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jon Denman rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kari Ashley receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremy Scott receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Waden Charles receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kari Ashley 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Taevion Swint rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaden Craig pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremy Payne rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Alonza Barnett III pass yds 119.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ed Small 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Waden Charles 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Waden Charles 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Derry 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Derry 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Ed Small 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Alonza Barnett III pass yds 119.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jeremy Payne rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Taevion Swint rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaden Craig pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Waden Charles receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kari Ashley 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Landen Chambers rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Derry receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jon Denman rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kari Ashley receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremy Scott receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ed Small receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UCF Knights team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points TCU Horned Frogs team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points TCU Horned Frogs Team pass yds 299.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UCF Knights Team pass yds 139.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UCF Knights Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds TCU Horned Frogs Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.