Temple Owls at Toledo Rockets — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Temple Owls 10%
Toledo Rockets 90%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1614 vs 1336 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.3 vs 28.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1614 vs 1336
+22.1%p Points per game
43.3 vs 28.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Temple Owls Toledo Rockets
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Autavius Ison rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Samuel Brown V rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Hammer receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Toledo Rockets Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1614 vs 1336 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.3 vs 28.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 49/49 Hit
90% Both total runs 71.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 71.5 Under· Totals Under Temple Owls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 48/50 Miss
10% Winning margin8 Toledo Rockets wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 28.0 → expected margin 15.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
78% Toledo Rockets wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 28.0 → expected margin 15.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
69% Toledo Rockets wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Toledo Rockets wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Temple Owls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Temple Owls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Temple Owls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Temple Owls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Autavius Ison rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Samuel Brown V rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Hammer receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adjatay Dabbs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayce Freeman receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Bond receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Colin Chase receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Miller rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Samuel Brown V receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keveun Mason rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under John Alan Richter pass yds 249.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Adjatay Dabbs 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Colin Chase 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Hammer 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ajani Sheppard pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under JoJo Bermudez 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Hammer 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ajani Sheppard pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over JoJo Bermudez 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Adjatay Dabbs 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Colin Chase 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over John Alan Richter pass yds 249.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Keveun Mason rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Miller rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Samuel Brown V receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rico Bond receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Colin Chase receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bryson Hammer receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adjatay Dabbs receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayce Freeman receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Autavius Ison rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Samuel Brown V rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 Toledo Rockets team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Temple Owls team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Toledo Rockets Team pass yds 319.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Toledo Rockets Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Temple Owls Team rush yds 244.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Temple Owls Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.