Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Texas A&M Aggies 18%
LSU Tigers 82%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1868 vs 1742 (50% blend)· Points per game 38.8 vs 31.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1868 vs 1742
+14.2%p Points per game
38.8 vs 31.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Texas A&M Aggies LSU Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 222yds (per game 55.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 49.9· opponent defense matchup ×0.95 → expected 47.6 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Isaiah Horton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 LSU Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1868 vs 1742 (50% blend)· Points per game 38.8 vs 31.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/7 Hit
82% Both total runs 70.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 70.5 Over· Totals Over Texas A&M Aggies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 6/36 Miss
18% Winning margin8 Texas A&M Aggies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
67% LSU Tigers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Texas A&M Aggies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 LSU Tigers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Texas A&M Aggies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 LSU Tigers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Texas A&M Aggies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 LSU Tigers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 TG Trey'Dez Green receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 222yds (per game 55.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 49.9· opponent defense matchup ×0.95 → expected 47.6 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
64% Isaiah Horton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mario Craver receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Harris receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terry Bussey receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mario Craver 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dilin Jones rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rueben Owens II rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Horton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dilin Jones receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KJ Edwards rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sam Leavitt pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Marcel Reed pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Sam Leavitt pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Marcel Reed pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Dilin Jones receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over KJ Edwards rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rueben Owens II rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Horton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dilin Jones rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Harris receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terry Bussey receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mario Craver 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mario Craver receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trey'Dez Green receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Horton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 LSU Tigers team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Texas A&M Aggies team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points LSU Tigers Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Texas A&M Aggies Team pass yds 169.5 Over· Team Pass Yds LSU Tigers Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas A&M Aggies Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.