Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Texas Longhorns 82%
Tennessee Volunteers 18%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1776 vs 1930
+8.2%p Points per game
40.0 vs 33.3
-4.0%p
Head to head Texas Longhorns Tennessee Volunteers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 65%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Emmett Mosley V 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mike Matthews receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Texas Longhorns Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/18 Hit
82% Both total runs 73.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 73.5 Under· Totals Under Tennessee Volunteers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1776 vs 1930 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.0 vs 33.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/21 Miss
18% Winning margin8 Texas Longhorns within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Texas Longhorns within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Tennessee Volunteers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Texas Longhorns within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Tennessee Volunteers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Texas Longhorns within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Tennessee Volunteers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Tennessee Volunteers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 CC Cam Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
65% Emmett Mosley V 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mike Matthews receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braylon Staley receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Radarious Jackson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DeSean Bishop rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mike Matthews 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Braylon Staley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Emmett Mosley V receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jermaine Bishop Jr. receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Arch Manning pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Faizon Brandon pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hollywood Smothers rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Raleek Brown rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam Coleman receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Daune Morris rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daune Morris rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Faizon Brandon pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hollywood Smothers rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Raleek Brown rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cam Coleman receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Arch Manning pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Emmett Mosley V receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jermaine Bishop Jr. receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mike Matthews 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Braylon Staley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over DeSean Bishop rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Braylon Staley receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Radarious Jackson receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mike Matthews receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cam Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Emmett Mosley V 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Texas Longhorns team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points Tennessee Volunteers team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Texas Longhorns Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tennessee Volunteers Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas Longhorns Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tennessee Volunteers Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.