Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 2:30 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Texas State Bobcats 80%
San Diego State Aztecs 20%
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
23.0 vs 36.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Texas State Bobcats San Diego State Aztecs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacob Bostick receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zechariah Sample receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Texas State Bobcats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
80% Both total runs 59.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 59.5 Under· Totals Under San Diego State Aztecs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 23.0 vs 36.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
20% Winning margin8 Texas State Bobcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 23.0 → expected margin 13.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
74% Texas State Bobcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 23.0 → expected margin 13.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
65% Texas State Bobcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ San Diego State Aztecs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Texas State Bobcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ San Diego State Aztecs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacob Bostick receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zechariah Sample receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javion Kinnard rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Torrance Burgess Jr. rush yds 104.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Javion Kinnard receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Davian Jackson rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kylen Evans receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Brad Jackson pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jayden Denegal pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Lucky Sutton rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Napier 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Dawn Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Dawn Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Denegal pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lucky Sutton rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jordan Napier 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Brad Jackson pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Davian Jackson rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kylen Evans receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Javion Kinnard receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Torrance Burgess Jr. rush yds 104.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javion Kinnard rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Zechariah Sample receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jacob Bostick receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Texas State Bobcats team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points San Diego State Aztecs team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Texas State Bobcats Team pass yds 259.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San Diego State Aztecs Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San Diego State Aztecs Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Texas State Bobcats Team rush yds 314.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.