Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 6:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Toledo Rockets 95%
Ball State Cardinals 5%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
18.0 vs 43.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Toledo Rockets Ball State Cardinals
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Bonds receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Toledo Rockets Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
95% Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Ball State Cardinals Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 18.0 vs 43.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
5% Winning margin8 Toledo Rockets wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 18.0 → expected margin 25.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
92% Toledo Rockets wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 18.0 → expected margin 25.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
87% Toledo Rockets wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Toledo Rockets wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Ball State Cardinals within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Ball State Cardinals within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Ball State Cardinals within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ball State Cardinals within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jalen Bonds receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Autavius Ison rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Hammer receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adjatay Dabbs receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Bond receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Horton rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Hammer 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Miller rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keldric Luster pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under John Alan Richter pass yds 264.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jalen Bonds rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Adjatay Dabbs 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Adjatay Dabbs 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jalen Bonds rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over John Alan Richter pass yds 264.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Keldric Luster pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over CJ Miller rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Donovan Hamilton receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bryson Hammer 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Horton rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalen Bonds receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donovan Hamilton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Autavius Ison rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bryson Hammer receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adjatay Dabbs receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rico Bond receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Thacker receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Thacker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Toledo Rockets team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Ball State Cardinals team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Ball State Cardinals Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Toledo Rockets Team pass yds 339.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Ball State Cardinals Team pass yds 139.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Toledo Rockets Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.