Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Troy Trojans 3%
Missouri Tigers 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1679 vs 1395 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.8 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1679 vs 1395
+22.3%p Points per game
35.8 vs 21.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Troy Trojans Missouri Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Noreel White receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamal Roberts rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Missouri Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1679 vs 1395 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.8 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/18 Hit
97% Both total runs 57.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 57.5 Over· Totals Over Troy Trojans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/28 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Missouri Tigers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 35.8 vs 21.3 → expected margin 14.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
76% Missouri Tigers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 35.8 vs 21.3 → expected margin 14.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
68% Missouri Tigers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Missouri Tigers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Troy Trojans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Troy Trojans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Troy Trojans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Troy Trojans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Noreel White receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamal Roberts rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Xai'Shaun Edwards rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TK Keyes receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Howard Kinchen 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cayden Lee receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Howard Kinchen receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TK Keyes 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Austin Simmons pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Goose Crowder pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Gavin Griffin rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Donovan Olugbode 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cayden Lee 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cayden Lee 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Donovan Olugbode 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Austin Simmons pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Goose Crowder pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Gavin Griffin rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TK Keyes 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Howard Kinchen receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cayden Lee receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamal Roberts rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Xai'Shaun Edwards rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TK Keyes receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Howard Kinchen 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Noreel White receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Missouri Tigers team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Troy Trojans team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Troy Trojans Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Missouri Tigers Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Troy Trojans Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Missouri Tigers Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.