Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Troy Trojans 63%
Utah State Aggies 37%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
13.0 vs 21.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Troy Trojans Utah State Aggies
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Javen Jacobs rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Garcia receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Utah State Aggies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
70% Troy Trojans wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 21.3 vs 13.0 → expected margin 8.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Utah State Aggies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Troy Trojans wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Utah State Aggies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Troy Trojans wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Utah State Aggies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Troy Trojans wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Troy Trojans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/22 Miss
63% Both total runs 34.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 34.5 Over· Totals Over Utah State Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1374 vs 1395 (50% blend)· Points per game 13.0 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/11 Hit
37% player stat32 Javen Jacobs rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Garcia receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Howard Kinchen receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Noreel White receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nikko Boncore receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nikko Boncore 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Gavin Griffin rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under TK Keyes receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javen Jacobs receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Goose Crowder pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Howard Kinchen 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Grady Brosterhous pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Grady Brosterhous rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under TK Keyes 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Javen Jacobs 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Javen Jacobs 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over TK Keyes 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Grady Brosterhous pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Grady Brosterhous rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javen Jacobs receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Goose Crowder pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Howard Kinchen 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Gavin Griffin rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TK Keyes receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nikko Boncore receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nikko Boncore 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Howard Kinchen receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Noreel White receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Garcia receiving yds 22.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaheim Merriweather rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javen Jacobs rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 Troy Trojans team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Utah State Aggies team runs 13.5 Over· Team Points Utah State Aggies Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Utah State Aggies Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Troy Trojans Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Troy Trojans Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.