Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State Wildcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Tulane Green Wave 7%
Kansas State Wildcats 93%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1679 vs 1517 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.5 vs 18.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1679 vs 1517
+16.4%p Points per game
40.5 vs 18.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Tulane Green Wave Kansas State Wildcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Bredell Richardson receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodney Fields Jr. rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Johnnie Daniels rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Kansas State Wildcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1679 vs 1517 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.5 vs 18.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/21 Hit
93% Both total runs 59.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 59.5 Under· Totals Under Tulane Green Wave Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/32 Miss
7% Winning margin8 Kansas State Wildcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.5 vs 18.8 → expected margin 21.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
88% Kansas State Wildcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 40.5 vs 18.8 → expected margin 21.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
82% Kansas State Wildcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Kansas State Wildcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Tulane Green Wave within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Tulane Green Wave within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Tulane Green Wave within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Tulane Green Wave within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Bredell Richardson receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodney Fields Jr. rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Johnnie Daniels rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Destyn Hill receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Brown-Stephens receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Avery Johnson rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Derrick Salley Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Garrett Oakley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Manning receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kadin Semonza pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Avery Johnson pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaylin Lucas rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Destyn Hill 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Garrett Oakley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Anthony Brown-Stephens 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Manning 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Manning 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Garrett Oakley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Anthony Brown-Stephens 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Destyn Hill 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Avery Johnson pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaylin Lucas rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Manning receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kadin Semonza pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Garrett Oakley receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Avery Johnson rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Derrick Salley Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Destyn Hill receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Brown-Stephens receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rodney Fields Jr. rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Johnnie Daniels rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bredell Richardson receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Tulane Green Wave team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Kansas State Wildcats team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Kansas State Wildcats Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kansas State Wildcats Team rush yds 269.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tulane Green Wave Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tulane Green Wave Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.