Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Tulsa Golden Hurricane 42%
Arkansas Razorbacks 58%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1516 vs 1233 (50% blend)· Points per game 23.0 vs 23.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1516 vs 1233
+22.3%p
Head to head Tulsa Golden Hurricane Arkansas Razorbacks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Ross receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Arkansas Razorbacks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 0.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
84% Arkansas Razorbacks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 0.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
76% Arkansas Razorbacks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Ross receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jimmy Calloway 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under KJ Jackson rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ismael Cisse receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Marshall receiving yds 89.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Marshall 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Trequan Jones rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jamari Hawkins receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Oran Singleton Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Braylen Russell rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Baylor Hayes pass yds 124.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Damari Alston rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under KJ Jackson pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ty Lockwood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ty Lockwood 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over KJ Jackson pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Braylen Russell rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Baylor Hayes pass yds 124.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Damari Alston rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Oran Singleton Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jamari Hawkins receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Marshall receiving yds 89.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Marshall 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Trequan Jones rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over KJ Jackson rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ismael Cisse receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javon Ross receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jimmy Calloway 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Arkansas Razorbacks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1516 vs 1233 (50% blend)· Points per game 23.0 vs 23.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/7 Hit
58% Both total runs 46.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 46.5 Under· Totals Under Tulsa Golden Hurricane Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 6/35 Miss
42% Team stats6 Tulsa Golden Hurricane team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas Razorbacks team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Tulsa Golden Hurricane Team pass yds 154.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas Razorbacks Team pass yds 309.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas Razorbacks Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tulsa Golden Hurricane Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.