UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate UAB Blazers 21%
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 78%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1443 vs 1400 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.8 vs 21.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1443 vs 1400
+8.1%p Points per game
30.8 vs 21.8
+4.0%p
Head to head UAB Blazers Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Russell Babineaux receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KeDarius Wade receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1443 vs 1400 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.8 vs 21.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/15 Hit
78% Both total runs 52.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 52.5 Under· Totals Under UAB Blazers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/22 Miss
21% Winning margin8 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.8 vs 21.8 → expected margin 9.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
65% UAB Blazers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UAB Blazers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 UAB Blazers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UAB Blazers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Russell Babineaux receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KeDarius Wade receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Smith receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Reid receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darrell Smith rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caden Jensen receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Mims receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Reid 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Beale pass yds 89.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ryder Burton pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bam McReynolds rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Landon Strother 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Rod Robinson II rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Russell Babineaux 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Ty Mims 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Russell Babineaux 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Ty Mims 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Landon Strother 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Rod Robinson II rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ryder Burton pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Bam McReynolds rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Daniel Beale pass yds 89.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Caden Jensen receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Mims receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over EJ Reid 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Darrell Smith rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Smith receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over EJ Reid receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Russell Babineaux receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over KeDarius Wade receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points UAB Blazers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Team pass yds 154.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UAB Blazers Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UAB Blazers Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.