UCF Knights at Houston Cougars — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model UCF Knights 41%
Houston Cougars 59%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 44.5 vs 36.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
44.5 vs 36.3
+4.0%p
Head to head UCF Knights Houston Cougars
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Waden Charles receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Makhi Hughes rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 UCF Knights within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Houston Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.5 vs 36.3 → expected margin 8.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
62% UCF Knights within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Houston Cougars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UCF Knights within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Houston Cougars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UCF Knights within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Houston Cougars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Waden Charles receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Makhi Hughes rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Patrick Overmyer 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Landen Chambers rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Amare Thomas receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Patrick Overmyer receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Derry receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Alonza Barnett III pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Taevion Swint rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Waden Charles 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Derry 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Keisean Henderson pass yds 99.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Amare Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Amare Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Keisean Henderson pass yds 99.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Alonza Barnett III pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Taevion Swint rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Waden Charles 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Derry 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Amare Thomas receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Patrick Overmyer receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Re'Shaun Sanford II receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Derry receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Makhi Hughes rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Patrick Overmyer 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Landen Chambers rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Waden Charles receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Houston Cougars Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 44.5 vs 36.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
59% Both total runs 80.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 80.5 Under· Totals Under UCF Knights Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
41% Team stats6 Houston Cougars team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points UCF Knights team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points UCF Knights Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Houston Cougars Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Houston Cougars Team rush yds 239.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UCF Knights Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.