UConn Huskies at Southern Miss Golden Eagles — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate UConn Huskies 82%
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 18%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1227 vs 1470
+14.6%p Points per game
24.5 vs 34.8
+4.0%p
Head to head UConn Huskies Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 31yds (per game 7.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 29.9· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 26.3 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Javon Brown receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Steven Robinson rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 UConn Huskies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 48/21 Hit
82% Both total runs 59.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 59.5 Under· Totals Under Southern Miss Golden Eagles Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1227 vs 1470 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.5 vs 34.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/49 Miss
18% Winning margin8 UConn Huskies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 34.8 vs 24.5 → expected margin 10.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
67% Southern Miss Golden Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 UConn Huskies wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 UConn Huskies wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UConn Huskies wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Southern Miss Golden Eagles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JF Jaylen Foster rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Low
season 4games 31yds (per game 7.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 29.9· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 26.3 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
63% Javon Brown receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Steven Robinson rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under AJ Little receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Shamar Porter receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kenji Christian receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mario Sanders receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under AJ Little 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Kalieb Osborne rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under MJ Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cyncir Bowers rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Shamar Porter 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Landry Lyddy pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kalieb Osborne pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Mario Sanders 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Javon Brown 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Mario Sanders 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Javon Brown 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Landry Lyddy pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kalieb Osborne pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Shamar Porter 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over MJ Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cyncir Bowers rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mario Sanders receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over AJ Little 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kalieb Osborne rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Steven Robinson rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over AJ Little receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Shamar Porter receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kenji Christian receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Foster rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javon Brown receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UConn Huskies team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Southern Miss Golden Eagles team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UConn Huskies Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UConn Huskies Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.