UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model UL Monroe Warhawks 3%
South Alabama Jaguars 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 31.3 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
31.3 vs 21.3
+4.0%p
Head to head UL Monroe Warhawks South Alabama Jaguars
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 236yds (per game 59.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 51.6· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 57.8 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under PJ Martin rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 South Alabama Jaguars Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 31.3 vs 21.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 52.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 52.5 Under· Totals Under UL Monroe Warhawks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 31.3 vs 21.3 → expected margin 10.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
67% UL Monroe Warhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JJ Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 236yds (per game 59.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 51.6· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 57.8 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under PJ Martin rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Eager receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Roland rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marcellus Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Keenan Phillips rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nic Trujillo receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LT Robinson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Austin Carlisle rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marcellus Jackson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aidan Armenta pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jared Hollins pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jared Hollins pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Aidan Armenta pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Austin Carlisle rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marcellus Jackson receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over LT Robinson receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keenan Phillips rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nic Trujillo receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bryson Roland rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marcellus Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over PJ Martin rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Anthony Eager receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 South Alabama Jaguars team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points UL Monroe Warhawks team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points South Alabama Jaguars Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UL Monroe Warhawks Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UL Monroe Warhawks Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds South Alabama Jaguars Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.