UNLV Rebels at Akron Zips — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate UNLV Rebels 89%
Akron Zips 11%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
886 vs 1491
+27.5%p
Head to head UNLV Rebels Akron Zips
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Taz Reddicks receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sean Patrick receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cibastian Broughton rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 UNLV Rebels Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/11 Hit
89% Both total runs 41.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 41.5 Over· Totals Over Akron Zips Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 886 vs 1491 (50% blend)· Points per game 19.5 vs 21.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/39 Miss
11% Winning margin8 Akron Zips within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
83% Akron Zips within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Akron Zips within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Akron Zips within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 UNLV Rebels wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ UNLV Rebels wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UNLV Rebels wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UNLV Rebels wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Taz Reddicks receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sean Patrick receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sean Patrick 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cibastian Broughton rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jai'Den Thomas receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyan Mason receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyan Mason 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Gant rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Elijah Alexander receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jai'Den Thomas rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Taeshaun Lyons receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Arnold rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jackson Arnold pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brayden Roggow pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Taeshaun Lyons 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Taz Reddicks 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Taz Reddicks 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Taeshaun Lyons 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Brayden Roggow pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jackson Arnold pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jackson Arnold rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jordan Gant rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Elijah Alexander receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jai'Den Thomas rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Taeshaun Lyons receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyan Mason 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kyan Mason receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cibastian Broughton rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jai'Den Thomas receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sean Patrick receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sean Patrick 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Taz Reddicks receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Akron Zips team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points UNLV Rebels team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points UNLV Rebels Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UNLV Rebels Team rush yds 199.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Akron Zips Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Akron Zips Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.