USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate USC Trojans 97%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 0-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1373 vs 1784
+23.0%p Points per game
33.8 vs 39.8
+4.0%p
Head to head USC Trojans Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 37yds (per game 9.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 30.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.02 → expected 31.4 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mark Bowman receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 USC Trojans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 0-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/36 Hit
97% Both total runs 73.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 73.5 Under· Totals Under Rutgers Scarlet Knights Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-3 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1373 vs 1784 (50% blend)· Points per game 33.8 vs 39.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/43 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 USC Trojans wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 USC Trojans wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 USC Trojans wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ USC Trojans wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 AG Aiden Gibson rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Low
season 4games 37yds (per game 9.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 30.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.02 → expected 31.4 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
62% Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mark Bowman receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jourdin Houston receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KJ Duff receiving yds 94.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ben Black III receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Lonergan rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Waymond Jordan rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trent Mosley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Lonergan pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under King Miller rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden Maiava pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Mark Bowman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jourdin Houston 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over KJ Duff 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over KJ Duff 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Jourdin Houston 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mark Bowman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Maiava pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Dylan Lonergan pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over King Miller rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trent Mosley receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dylan Lonergan rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Waymond Jordan rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over KJ Duff receiving yds 94.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ben Black III receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jourdin Houston receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aiden Gibson rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mark Bowman receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points USC Trojans team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Rutgers Scarlet Knights Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Rutgers Scarlet Knights Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds USC Trojans Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds USC Trojans Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.