UT Martin Skyhawks at Memphis Tigers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate UT Martin Skyhawks 3%
Memphis Tigers 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 33.5 vs 21.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
33.5 vs 21.2
+4.0%p
Head to head UT Martin Skyhawks Memphis Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Makhia Sherrard receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jermane Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deuce Oliver receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Memphis Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 33.5 vs 21.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 45/22 Hit
97% Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under UT Martin Skyhawks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/46 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Memphis Tigers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 33.5 vs 21.2 → expected margin 12.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
72% Memphis Tigers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 33.5 vs 21.2 → expected margin 12.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
63% UT Martin Skyhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Memphis Tigers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UT Martin Skyhawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Memphis Tigers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ UT Martin Skyhawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UT Martin Skyhawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Makhia Sherrard receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jermane Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Makhia Sherrard 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Deuce Oliver receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Carter receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylin Carter rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hunter Tipton receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tommy Ansley rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Manny Covey rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tychaun Chapman receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Franklin rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marcus Stokes pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Julian Calvez pass yds 119.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Deuce Oliver 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Hunter Tipton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jermane Hayes 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Hunter Tipton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jermane Hayes 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Marcus Stokes pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Julian Calvez pass yds 119.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Deuce Oliver 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Tychaun Chapman receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Franklin rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Manny Covey rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylin Carter rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hunter Tipton receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tommy Ansley rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deuce Oliver receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Carter receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jermane Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Makhia Sherrard 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Makhia Sherrard receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Memphis Tigers team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points UT Martin Skyhawks team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Memphis Tigers Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Memphis Tigers Team rush yds 269.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UT Martin Skyhawks Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UT Martin Skyhawks Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.