Utah State Aggies at Boise State Broncos — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Utah State Aggies 3%
Boise State Broncos 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 33.8 vs 13.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
33.8 vs 13.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Utah State Aggies Boise State Broncos
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Rasean Jones receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sire Gaines rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Grady Brosterhous rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Boise State Broncos Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 33.8 vs 13.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 46.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 46.5 Under· Totals Under Utah State Aggies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 Boise State Broncos wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 33.8 vs 13.0 → expected margin 20.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
89% Boise State Broncos wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 33.8 vs 13.0 → expected margin 20.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
83% Boise State Broncos wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Boise State Broncos wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Utah State Aggies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Utah State Aggies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Utah State Aggies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Utah State Aggies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Rasean Jones receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sire Gaines rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Grady Brosterhous rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dylan Riley rush yds 114.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sire Gaines receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javen Jacobs receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Bates receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javen Jacobs rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nikko Boncore receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Garcia receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rasean Jones 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Javen Jacobs 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Maddux Madsen pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cam Bates 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Grady Brosterhous pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nikko Boncore 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam Bates 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Grady Brosterhous pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nikko Boncore 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Maddux Madsen pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Javen Jacobs 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rasean Jones 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam Bates receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javen Jacobs rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nikko Boncore receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Garcia receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sire Gaines receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javen Jacobs receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dylan Riley rush yds 114.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sire Gaines rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Grady Brosterhous rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rasean Jones receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Boise State Broncos team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points Utah State Aggies team runs 13.5 Over· Team Points Boise State Broncos Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Boise State Broncos Team rush yds 264.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Utah State Aggies Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Utah State Aggies Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.