Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Utah State Aggies 3%
Utah Utes 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1918 vs 1374 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.3 vs 13.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1918 vs 1374
+28.1%p Points per game
43.3 vs 13.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Utah State Aggies Utah Utes
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Devon Dampier rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Noah Bennee receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Garcia receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Utah Utes Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1918 vs 1374 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.3 vs 13.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 33/1 Hit
97% Both total runs 56.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 56.5 Under· Totals Under Utah State Aggies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-3 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/34 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Utah Utes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 13.0 → expected margin 30.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
96% Utah Utes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 13.0 → expected margin 30.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
93% Utah Utes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Utah Utes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Utah State Aggies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Utah State Aggies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Utah State Aggies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Utah State Aggies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Devon Dampier rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Noah Bennee receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Garcia receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braden Pegan 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Javen Jacobs rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nikko Boncore receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nikko Boncore 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Wayshawn Parker rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braden Pegan receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javen Jacobs receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady Brosterhous pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Wayshawn Parker receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Devon Dampier pass yds 209.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Grady Brosterhous rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Javen Jacobs 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Wayshawn Parker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Wayshawn Parker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Javen Jacobs 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Devon Dampier pass yds 209.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Grady Brosterhous rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Wayshawn Parker receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Grady Brosterhous pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Javen Jacobs receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Wayshawn Parker rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Braden Pegan receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javen Jacobs rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nikko Boncore receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nikko Boncore 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Braden Pegan 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Devon Dampier rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Noah Bennee receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Garcia receiving yds 22.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Utah Utes team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Utah State Aggies team runs 13.5 Over· Team Points Utah Utes Team pass yds 274.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Utah State Aggies Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Utah Utes Team rush yds 254.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Utah State Aggies Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.