Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Utah Utes 92%
Iowa State Cyclones 8%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1672 vs 1918
+14.8%p Points per game
30.8 vs 43.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Utah Utes Iowa State Cyclones
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Omari Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Flora receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braden Pegan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Utah Utes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/18 Hit
92% Both total runs 74.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 74.5 Over· Totals Over Iowa State Cyclones Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1672 vs 1918 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.8 vs 43.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/32 Miss
8% Winning margin8 Utah Utes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 30.8 → expected margin 12.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
72% Utah Utes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 30.8 → expected margin 12.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
63% Utah Utes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Iowa State Cyclones within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Iowa State Cyclones within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Utah Utes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Iowa State Cyclones within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Iowa State Cyclones within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Omari Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Flora receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braden Pegan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Wayshawn Parker receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Noah Bennee receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dominic Overby receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Flora rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylen Raynor rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Wayshawn Parker rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Wayshawn Parker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylen Raynor pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Aiden Flora 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Devon Dampier pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Devon Dampier rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braden Pegan 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Omari Hayes 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Omari Hayes 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Devon Dampier pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Devon Dampier rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Braden Pegan 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Aiden Flora 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaylen Raynor pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Wayshawn Parker rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Wayshawn Parker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Aiden Flora rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylen Raynor rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dominic Overby receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Noah Bennee receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Omari Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aiden Flora receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Braden Pegan receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Wayshawn Parker receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Iowa State Cyclones team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Utah Utes team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Iowa State Cyclones Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Utah Utes Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Utah Utes Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Iowa State Cyclones Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.