UTEP Miners at Michigan Wolverines — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate UTEP Miners 3%
Michigan Wolverines 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1739 vs 1078 (50% blend)· Points per game 25.3 vs 18.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1739 vs 1078
+29.0%p Points per game
25.3 vs 18.8
+4.0%p
Head to head UTEP Miners Michigan Wolverines
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Savion Hiter receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under JJ Buchanan receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carver Cheeks receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Michigan Wolverines Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1739 vs 1078 (50% blend)· Points per game 25.3 vs 18.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 52/18 Hit
97% Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over UTEP Miners Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/53 Miss
3% Winning margin8 UTEP Miners within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% UTEP Miners within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 6.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
62% Michigan Wolverines wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ UTEP Miners within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Michigan Wolverines wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UTEP Miners within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Michigan Wolverines wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Michigan Wolverines wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Savion Hiter receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Savion Hiter rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JJ Buchanan receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carver Cheeks receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kam Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Andrew Marsh receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tavorus Jones rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaden Smith receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Marshall rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JJ Buchanan 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Raymond Moore III rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tommy Carr pass yds 94.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under EJ Colson Jr. pass yds 134.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaden Smith 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Carver Cheeks 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Carver Cheeks 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaden Smith 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over EJ Colson Jr. pass yds 134.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tommy Carr pass yds 94.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordan Marshall rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JJ Buchanan 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Raymond Moore III rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Andrew Marsh receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tavorus Jones rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaden Smith receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over JJ Buchanan receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carver Cheeks receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kam Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Savion Hiter rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Savion Hiter receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UTEP Miners team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Michigan Wolverines team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points UTEP Miners Team pass yds 119.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Michigan Wolverines Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Michigan Wolverines Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UTEP Miners Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.