UTEP Miners at New Mexico Lobos — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model UTEP Miners 3%
New Mexico Lobos 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 39.0 vs 18.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
39.0 vs 18.8
+4.0%p
Head to head UTEP Miners New Mexico Lobos
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Cade Keith receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carver Cheeks receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kam Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 New Mexico Lobos Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 39.0 vs 18.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 57.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 57.5 Under· Totals Under UTEP Miners Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 New Mexico Lobos wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 39.0 vs 18.8 → expected margin 20.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% New Mexico Lobos wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 39.0 vs 18.8 → expected margin 20.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
79% New Mexico Lobos wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ New Mexico Lobos wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ UTEP Miners within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 UTEP Miners within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 UTEP Miners within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UTEP Miners within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Cade Keith receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cade Keith 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Carver Cheeks receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kam Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Scottre Humphrey rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bailen George receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Troy Omeire receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Smith receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tavorus Jones rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Toa Fa'avae pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Raymond Moore III rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kiefer Sibley rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under EJ Colson Jr. pass yds 134.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bailen George 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaden Smith 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Carver Cheeks 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Carver Cheeks 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaden Smith 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Bailen George 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Kiefer Sibley rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over EJ Colson Jr. pass yds 134.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Toa Fa'avae pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Raymond Moore III rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tavorus Jones rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Scottre Humphrey rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bailen George receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Troy Omeire receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaden Smith receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carver Cheeks receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kam Thomas receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cade Keith 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cade Keith receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UTEP Miners team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points New Mexico Lobos team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points UTEP Miners Team pass yds 119.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico Lobos Team pass yds 154.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico Lobos Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UTEP Miners Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.