UTSA Roadrunners at Texas Longhorns — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate UTSA Roadrunners 3%
Texas Longhorns 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1930 vs 1519 (50% blend)· Points per game 33.3 vs 35.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1930 vs 1519
+26.0%p
Head to head UTSA Roadrunners Texas Longhorns
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Brandon High Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jermaine Bishop Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Texas Longhorns Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1930 vs 1519 (50% blend)· Points per game 33.3 vs 35.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 30/7 Hit
97% Both total runs 68.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 68.5 Under· Totals Under UTSA Roadrunners Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 6/31 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Texas Longhorns within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Texas Longhorns within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Texas Longhorns within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Texas Longhorns within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 UTSA Roadrunners wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ UTSA Roadrunners wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UTSA Roadrunners wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UTSA Roadrunners wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Brandon High Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jermaine Bishop Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Coleman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Allen Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under David Amador II receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Allen Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Emmett Mosley V receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Owen McCown pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hollywood Smothers rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Raleek Brown rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Will Henderson III rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mekhi Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Arch Manning pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cam Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Emmett Mosley V 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cam Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Emmett Mosley V 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Arch Manning pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hollywood Smothers rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Raleek Brown rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Will Henderson III rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mekhi Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Owen McCown pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Emmett Mosley V receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cam Coleman receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DJ Allen Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over David Amador II receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DJ Allen Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jermaine Bishop Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brandon High Jr. rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 Texas Longhorns team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points UTSA Roadrunners team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Texas Longhorns Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UTSA Roadrunners Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas Longhorns Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UTSA Roadrunners Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.