Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Virginia Cavaliers 80%
Florida State Seminoles 20%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
32.0 vs 40.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Virginia Cavaliers Florida State Seminoles
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Duce Robinson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Virginia Cavaliers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
80% Both total runs 72.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 72.5 Under· Totals Under Florida State Seminoles Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.0 vs 40.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
20% Winning margin8 Florida State Seminoles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Virginia Cavaliers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.5 vs 32.0 → expected margin 8.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
63% Florida State Seminoles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Florida State Seminoles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Florida State Seminoles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Duce Robinson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Duce Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashton Daniels rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayvan Boggs receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micahi Danzy receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jekail Middlebrook rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Da'Shawn Martin receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kameron Courtney 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ashton Daniels pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ousmane Kromah rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Xay Davis rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Beau Pribula pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jayvan Boggs 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayvan Boggs 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Rico Flores Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Beau Pribula pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ashton Daniels pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ousmane Kromah rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Xay Davis rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ashton Daniels rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayvan Boggs receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micahi Danzy receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jekail Middlebrook rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Da'Shawn Martin receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kameron Courtney 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Duce Robinson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Duce Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Virginia Cavaliers team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Florida State Seminoles team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Florida State Seminoles Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Virginia Cavaliers Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Virginia Cavaliers Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Florida State Seminoles Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.