Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland Terrapins — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Virginia Tech Hokies 88%
Maryland Terrapins 12%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1316 vs 1494
+10.0%p Points per game
32.3 vs 43.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Virginia Tech Hokies Maryland Terrapins
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 312yds (per game 78.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.1· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 53.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Marcellous Hawkins Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Que'Sean Brown receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Virginia Tech Hokies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/27 Hit
88% Both total runs 75.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 75.5 Under· Totals Under Maryland Terrapins Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1316 vs 1494 (50% blend)· Points per game 32.3 vs 43.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/36 Miss
12% Winning margin8 Virginia Tech Hokies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 32.3 → expected margin 11.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
69% Virginia Tech Hokies wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Maryland Terrapins within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Virginia Tech Hokies wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Maryland Terrapins within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Maryland Terrapins within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Virginia Tech Hokies wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Maryland Terrapins within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 CJ Chris Durr Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 312yds (per game 78.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.1· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 53.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
62% Marcellous Hawkins Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Que'Sean Brown receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kaleb Webb receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeffrey Overton Jr. rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Reynolds receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ayden Greene receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Harry Dalton III rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ethan Grunkemeyer pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Malik Washington pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Chris Durr Jr. 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Que'Sean Brown 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Iverson Howard rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Reynolds 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Iverson Howard rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Reynolds 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Malik Washington pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Chris Durr Jr. 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Que'Sean Brown 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Ethan Grunkemeyer pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Harry Dalton III rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeffrey Overton Jr. rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Reynolds receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ayden Greene receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kaleb Webb receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Durr Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Marcellous Hawkins Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Que'Sean Brown receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Maryland Terrapins team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Virginia Tech Hokies team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Maryland Terrapins Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Maryland Terrapins Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Virginia Tech Hokies Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Virginia Tech Hokies Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.