Wagner Seahawks at California Golden Bears — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Wagner Seahawks 5%
California Golden Bears 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 26.0 vs 12.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
26.0 vs 12.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Wagner Seahawks California Golden Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Adam Mohammed receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Colclough receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 California Golden Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 26.0 vs 12.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 49/8 Hit
95% Both total runs 38.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 38.5 Over· Totals Over Wagner Seahawks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/50 Miss
5% Winning margin8 California Golden Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 26.0 vs 12.0 → expected margin 14.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
80% California Golden Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 26.0 vs 12.0 → expected margin 14.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
70% California Golden Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Wagner Seahawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 California Golden Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Wagner Seahawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Wagner Seahawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Wagner Seahawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat30 Adam Mohammed receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Colclough receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ian Strong receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sekou Kamau rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Derek Burrell receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Hendricks receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Fowler-El receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adam Mohammed rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Shawn James rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Chase Hendricks 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Ian Strong 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Colclough 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Zion Fowler-El 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Zion Fowler-El 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Colclough 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Chase Hendricks 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Ian Strong 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Adam Mohammed rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Shawn James rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chase Hendricks receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zion Fowler-El receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ian Strong receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sekou Kamau rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Derek Burrell receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adam Mohammed receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Colclough receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 California Golden Bears team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Wagner Seahawks team runs 12.5 Over· Team Points California Golden Bears Team pass yds 309.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Wagner Seahawks Team pass yds 119.5 Over· Team Pass Yds California Golden Bears Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Wagner Seahawks Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.