Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Wake Forest Demon Deacons 45%
Louisville Cardinals 55%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1674 vs 1530 (50% blend)· Points per game 41.3 vs 31.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1674 vs 1530
+15.3%p Points per game
41.3 vs 31.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Wake Forest Demon Deacons Louisville Cardinals
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Carlos Hernandez receiving yds 94.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaleel Skinner receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jack Foley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Louisville Cardinals wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 41.3 vs 31.5 → expected margin 9.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Wake Forest Demon Deacons within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
62% Louisville Cardinals wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Wake Forest Demon Deacons within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Louisville Cardinals wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Wake Forest Demon Deacons within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Louisville Cardinals wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Wake Forest Demon Deacons within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Carlos Hernandez receiving yds 94.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaleel Skinner receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jack Foley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tre Richardson receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lawayne McCoy receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TreyShun Hurry 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Carlos Hernandez 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaac Brown rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Deuce Lawrence rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keyjuan Brown rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Antonio Meeks receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kam Shanks 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Lincoln Kienholz pass yds 264.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ty Clark III rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Gio Lopez pass yds 249.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tre Richardson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Richardson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Gio Lopez pass yds 249.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lincoln Kienholz pass yds 264.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ty Clark III rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keyjuan Brown rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Antonio Meeks receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kam Shanks 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Isaac Brown rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deuce Lawrence rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Lawayne McCoy receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TreyShun Hurry 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Carlos Hernandez 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Richardson receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaleel Skinner receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jack Foley receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carlos Hernandez receiving yds 94.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Louisville Cardinals Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1674 vs 1530 (50% blend)· Points per game 41.3 vs 31.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/31 Miss
55% Both total runs 72.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 72.5 Under· Totals Under Wake Forest Demon Deacons Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 30/28 Hit
45% Team stats6 Wake Forest Demon Deacons team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Louisville Cardinals team runs 41.5 Over· Team Points Louisville Cardinals Team pass yds 329.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Wake Forest Demon Deacons Team pass yds 304.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Wake Forest Demon Deacons Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Louisville Cardinals Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.