Washington Huskies at USC Trojans — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Washington Huskies 32%
USC Trojans 67%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 39.8 vs 28.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
39.8 vs 28.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Washington Huskies USC Trojans
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 5games 372yds (per game 74.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 53.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Mark Bowman receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brian Bonner Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 USC Trojans wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 39.8 vs 28.0 → expected margin 11.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
70% USC Trojans wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Washington Huskies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 USC Trojans wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Washington Huskies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 USC Trojans wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Washington Huskies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Washington Huskies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 USC Trojans Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 39.8 vs 28.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
67% Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under Washington Huskies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
32% player stat32 KD Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 372yds (per game 74.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 53.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
62% Mark Bowman receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brian Bonner Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dezmen Roebuck receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dezmen Roebuck 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Baron Naone receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Lawson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayden Maiava pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under King Miller rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trent Mosley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trey Cooley rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Waymond Jordan rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mark Bowman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Elijah Brown pass yds 99.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Lawson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Lawson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Elijah Brown pass yds 99.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Waymond Jordan rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mark Bowman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Maiava pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over King Miller rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trent Mosley receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trey Cooley rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Lawson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Baron Naone receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dezmen Roebuck receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dezmen Roebuck 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mark Bowman receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brian Bonner Jr. rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 USC Trojans team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Washington Huskies team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Washington Huskies Team pass yds 304.5 Over· Team Pass Yds USC Trojans Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds USC Trojans Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Washington Huskies Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.