West Virginia Mountaineers at Virginia Cavaliers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate West Virginia Mountaineers 56%
Virginia Cavaliers 44%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1698 vs 1352
-22.6%p Points per game
40.5 vs 36.3
-4.0%p
Head to head West Virginia Mountaineers Virginia Cavaliers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Neider receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 West Virginia Mountaineers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% West Virginia Mountaineers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% West Virginia Mountaineers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ West Virginia Mountaineers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Virginia Cavaliers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Virginia Cavaliers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Neider receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Bray receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jekail Middlebrook rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DJ Epps receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Da'Shawn Martin receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kameron Courtney 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cam Cook rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Michael Hawkins Jr. rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Xay Davis rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Beau Pribula pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Michael Hawkins Jr. pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaden Bray 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under DJ Epps 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Epps 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Beau Pribula pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Rico Flores Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Michael Hawkins Jr. pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaden Bray 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Xay Davis rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Da'Shawn Martin receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kameron Courtney 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam Cook rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Michael Hawkins Jr. rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jekail Middlebrook rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over DJ Epps receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaden Bray receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over John Neider receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 West Virginia Mountaineers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/28 Hit
56% Both total runs 76.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 76.5 Under· Totals Under Virginia Cavaliers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1698 vs 1352 (50% blend, 중립 park Home edge none)· Points per game 40.5 vs 36.3 (capped at ±4%p)· neutral venue (home edge removed)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/39 Miss
44% Team stats6 Virginia Cavaliers team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points West Virginia Mountaineers team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points West Virginia Mountaineers Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Virginia Cavaliers Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds West Virginia Mountaineers Team rush yds 294.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Virginia Cavaliers Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.