Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 3%
Indiana Hoosiers 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2106 vs 1195 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.5 vs 21.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
2106 vs 1195
+29.7%p Points per game
43.5 vs 21.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Indiana Hoosiers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nick Marsh receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Shazz Preston receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ajay Allen rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Indiana Hoosiers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 0-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2106 vs 1195 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.5 vs 21.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/1 Hit
97% Both total runs 65.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 65.5 Over· Totals Over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-3 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/39 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Indiana Hoosiers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.5 vs 21.5 → expected margin 22.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
88% Indiana Hoosiers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.5 vs 21.5 → expected margin 22.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
83% Indiana Hoosiers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Indiana Hoosiers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Nick Marsh receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Shazz Preston receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ajay Allen rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brock Glenn rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CC Ezirim receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lee Beebe Jr. rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Charlie Becker 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cameron Flowers receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Charlie Becker receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Hoover pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cameron Flowers 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nick Marsh 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nick Marsh 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Josh Hoover pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cameron Flowers 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Charlie Becker receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lee Beebe Jr. rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Charlie Becker 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cameron Flowers receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brock Glenn rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CC Ezirim receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nick Marsh receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Shazz Preston receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ajay Allen rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 Indiana Hoosiers team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Indiana Hoosiers Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Indiana Hoosiers Team rush yds 259.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.