Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 2 (Fri) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 15%
New Mexico State Aggies 85%
Locked before start
New Mexico State Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 85% Hit Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 40% New Mexico State Aggies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 86% Showing 3 of 26 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-3 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1278 vs 1195 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.8 vs 19.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1278 vs 1195
+11.2%p Points per game
27.8 vs 19.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Western Kentucky Hilltoppers New Mexico State Aggies
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Quincy Burroughs receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New Mexico State Aggies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 27.8 vs 19.8 → expected margin 8.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% New Mexico State Aggies wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 27.8 vs 19.8 → expected margin 8.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
79% New Mexico State Aggies wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ New Mexico State Aggies wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 New Mexico State Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1278 vs 1195 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.8 vs 19.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/14 Hit
85% Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 2-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/35 Miss
15% player stat32 Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Quincy Burroughs receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brock Glenn rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under James Jones rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under TK King receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cameron Flowers receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josiah Thomas receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Hedden pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ajay Allen rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cameron Flowers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under TJ Washington Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under TK King 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under TK King 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Washington Jr. rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cameron Flowers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ajay Allen rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trey Hedden pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Josiah Thomas receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cameron Flowers receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over James Jones rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TK King receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brock Glenn rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Quincy Burroughs receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 New Mexico State Aggies team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points New Mexico State Aggies Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team rush yds 124.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New Mexico State Aggies Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.