William & Mary Tribe at Duke Blue Devils — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate William & Mary Tribe 3%
Duke Blue Devils 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 36.3 vs 22.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
36.3 vs 22.2
+4.0%p
Head to head William & Mary Tribe Duke Blue Devils
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Kai Austin receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Khylil Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jonah Burton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Duke Blue Devils Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 36.3 vs 22.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 62/8 Hit
97% Both total runs 58.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 58.5 Under· Totals Under William & Mary Tribe Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/63 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Duke Blue Devils wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 22.2 → expected margin 14.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
75% Duke Blue Devils wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 22.2 → expected margin 14.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
66% Duke Blue Devils wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ William & Mary Tribe within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Duke Blue Devils wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ William & Mary Tribe within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 William & Mary Tribe within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 William & Mary Tribe within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Kai Austin receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Khylil Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jonah Burton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaivon Solomon receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Campbell Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nate Sheppard rush yds 119.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Hasley receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Winston Watkins rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Vanantwerp receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Walker Eget pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Hasley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jonah Burton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Andrew King rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Winston Watkins pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Khylil Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Kai Austin 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kai Austin 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Winston Watkins pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Khylil Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Hasley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jonah Burton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Andrew King rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Walker Eget pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Luke Vanantwerp receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nate Sheppard rush yds 119.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Hasley receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Winston Watkins rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Campbell Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jonah Burton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaivon Solomon receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Khylil Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kai Austin receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Duke Blue Devils team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points William & Mary Tribe team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Duke Blue Devils Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds William & Mary Tribe Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds William & Mary Tribe Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Duke Blue Devils Team rush yds 274.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.