Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 9:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Wisconsin Badgers 24%
Penn State Nittany Lions 76%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1901 vs 1612 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.8 vs 31.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1901 vs 1612
+22.5%p Points per game
36.8 vs 31.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Wisconsin Badgers Penn State Nittany Lions
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 65%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Tyrell Henry receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Benjamin Brahmer receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Penn State Nittany Lions Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1901 vs 1612 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.8 vs 31.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/25 Miss
76% Both total runs 68.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 68.5 Under· Totals Under Wisconsin Badgers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/21 Hit
24% Winning margin8 Wisconsin Badgers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Wisconsin Badgers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Wisconsin Badgers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Wisconsin Badgers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Penn State Nittany Lions wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 KH Koby Howard 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
65% Tyrell Henry receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Benjamin Brahmer receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under James Peoples rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Abu Sama III rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chris Brooks Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Sowell 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chase Sowell receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Koby Howard receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rocco Becht pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jacob Harris receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tyrell Henry 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Carson Hansen rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Darrion Dupree rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Colton Joseph pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jacob Harris 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jacob Harris 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Colton Joseph pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Darrion Dupree rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Carson Hansen rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rocco Becht pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jacob Harris receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyrell Henry 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Koby Howard receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chase Sowell receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chase Sowell 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over James Peoples rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Abu Sama III rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Brooks Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Benjamin Brahmer receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyrell Henry receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Koby Howard 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Penn State Nittany Lions team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Wisconsin Badgers team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Wisconsin Badgers Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Penn State Nittany Lions Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Penn State Nittany Lions Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Wisconsin Badgers Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.