Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 8:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Arizona Cardinals 30%
San Francisco 49ers 70%
Locked before start
San Francisco 49ers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 70% Hit Mac Jones pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 72% San Francisco 49ers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 52% Showing 3 of 46 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 72%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(11games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (11 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Trey McBride 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mike Evans 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Arizona Cardinals within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% Arizona Cardinals within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Arizona Cardinals within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 San Francisco 49ers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Arizona Cardinals within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 San Francisco 49ers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ San Francisco 49ers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ San Francisco 49ers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat60 MJ Mac Jones pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(11games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (11 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
72% Trey McBride 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mike Evans 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Deebo Samuel Sr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jeremiyah Love 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Demarcus Robinson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Trey McBride receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Watkins receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Wilson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kendrick Bourne receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Kittle receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Wilson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Brock Purdy pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Trey McBride 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Christian McCaffrey 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Christian McCaffrey rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Deebo Samuel Sr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiyah Love rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bam Knight rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kyle Juszczyk 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Purdy pass yds 254.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kaelon Black rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jacoby Brissett pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jacoby Brissett pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Christian McCaffrey 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Mike Evans 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Mike Evans 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under George Kittle 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Christian McCaffrey 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jacoby Brissett pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jacoby Brissett pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Brock Purdy pass yds 254.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kaelon Black rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Christian McCaffrey rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deebo Samuel Sr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiyah Love rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bam Knight rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trey McBride 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Brock Purdy pass TD 2.5 Over· Pass TDs Over George Kittle receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Michael Wilson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Kendrick Bourne receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Michael Wilson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Watkins receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trey McBride receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bam Knight 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyler Allgeier 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Purdy 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Michael Wilson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mac Jones pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jordan James 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kaelon Black 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Marvin Harrison Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD KhaDarel Hodge 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jacob Cowing 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jordan Watkins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalen Brooks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Luke Farrell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Hunter Long 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jacoby Brissett 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 San Francisco 49ers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 36/31 Hit
70% Both total runs 48.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 48.5 Under· Totals Under Arizona Cardinals Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 30/37 Miss
30% Team stats6 San Francisco 49ers team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Arizona Cardinals team runs 20.5 Over· Team Points San Francisco 49ers Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San Francisco 49ers Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Arizona Cardinals Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arizona Cardinals Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
