Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers — Game center Final NFL
Sep 25 (Fri) · 12:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atlanta Falcons 37%
Green Bay Packers 63%
Locked before start
Cooper Rush pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 65% Jack Strand pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71% MarShawn Lloyd rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 59% Showing 3 of 41 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Atlanta Falcons Green Bay Packers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Christian Watson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Michael Penix Jr. pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jack Strand pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Green Bay Packers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 0.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
87% Green Bay Packers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 0.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Green Bay Packers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Green Bay Packers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Atlanta Falcons wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Atlanta Falcons wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Atlanta Falcons wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Atlanta Falcons wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat60 Christian Watson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Michael Penix Jr. pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jack Strand pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Bijan Robinson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cooper Rush pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Christian Watson receiving yds 84.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matthew Golden receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bijan Robinson rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brian Robinson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tucker Kraft receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under MarShawn Lloyd rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Drake London receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Drake London 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Matthew Golden 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Christian Watson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Kaleb Johnson rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bijan Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bijan Robinson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Austin Hooper receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Love pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jordan Love pass yds 304.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Michael Penix Jr. pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Michael Penix Jr. pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordan Love pass yds 304.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tucker Kraft 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jordan Love pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Austin Hooper receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kaleb Johnson rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bijan Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bijan Robinson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Christian Watson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Matthew Golden 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Drake London 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Drake London receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over MarShawn Lloyd rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tucker Kraft receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bijan Robinson rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brian Robinson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Christian Watson receiving yds 84.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matthew Golden receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Drake London 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cooper Rush pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over MarShawn Lloyd 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jack Strand pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Michael Penix Jr. pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Kyle Pitts 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD J. Michael Sturdivant 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Blair 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Zachariah Branch 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Charlie Woerner 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jonnu Smith 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jack Strand 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Austin Hooper 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cooper Rush 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Olamide Zaccheaus 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brian Robinson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Bo Melton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Matthew Golden 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Michael Penix Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jahan Dotson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Green Bay Packers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 14/36 Miss
63% Both total runs 37.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 37.5 Under· Totals Under Atlanta Falcons Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 35/15 Hit
37% Team stats6 Atlanta Falcons team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Green Bay Packers team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Green Bay Packers Team pass yds 314.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Atlanta Falcons Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Atlanta Falcons Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Green Bay Packers Team rush yds 44.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
