Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 8:25 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Baltimore Ravens 84%
Dallas Cowboys 16%
Locked before start
Dallas Cowboys within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 56% Derrick Henry 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 81% Dallas Cowboys within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 46% Showing 3 of 48 locked markets
Behind the probability same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 81%
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View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 72%
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View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 2games 1TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.4TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 2 current-season appearances, 1 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.4 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.4TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Lamar Jackson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Baltimore Ravens Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 34/32 Hit
84% Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under Dallas Cowboys Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 31/35 Miss
16% player stat61 DH Derrick Henry 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
81% ZF Zay Flowers 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 2games 1TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.4TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 2 current-season appearances, 1 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.4 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.4TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
72% Lamar Jackson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Javonte Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD CeeDee Lamb 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD CeeDee Lamb receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Pickens 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Derrick Henry rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Lamar Jackson rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Zay Flowers receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tyler Goodson rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jake Ferguson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rashod Bateman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mark Andrews receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Pickens receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javonte Williams rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jake Ferguson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Lamar Jackson pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Dak Prescott pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under CeeDee Lamb 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Zay Flowers 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Lamar Jackson pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Mark Andrews 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dak Prescott pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Dak Prescott pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Mark Andrews 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Lamar Jackson pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Zay Flowers 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under CeeDee Lamb 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Dak Prescott pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lamar Jackson pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Javonte Williams rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over George Pickens receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyler Goodson rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jake Ferguson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rashod Bateman receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mark Andrews receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zay Flowers receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lamar Jackson rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Derrick Henry rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CeeDee Lamb receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over George Pickens 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over George Pickens 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyler Goodson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mark Andrews 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Justice Hill 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ryan Flournoy 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Rashod Bateman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jonathan Mingo 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ja'Kobi Lane 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Devontez Walker 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Matthew Hibner 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD LaJohntay Wester 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Cuevas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Durham Smythe 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD KaVontae Turpin 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Moore 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dak Prescott 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brevyn Spann-Ford 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emari Demercado 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Hunter Luepke 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Winning margin8 Baltimore Ravens wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Baltimore Ravens wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Dallas Cowboys within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Baltimore Ravens wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Dallas Cowboys within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Baltimore Ravens wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Dallas Cowboys within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Dallas Cowboys within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Team stats6 Dallas Cowboys team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Baltimore Ravens team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Dallas Cowboys Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Baltimore Ravens Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Dallas Cowboys Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Baltimore Ravens Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
