Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers — Game center Final NFL
Oct 4 (Sun) · 8:25 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Denver Broncos 36%
San Francisco 49ers 64%
Locked before start
Denver Broncos within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 77% Mac Jones pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 72% San Francisco 49ers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 64% Hit Showing 3 of 58 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 72%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(11games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (11 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) RJ Harvey receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Christian McCaffrey 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Denver Broncos within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.9 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% Denver Broncos within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Denver Broncos within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 San Francisco 49ers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Denver Broncos within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 San Francisco 49ers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ San Francisco 49ers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ San Francisco 49ers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat60 MJ Mac Jones pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(11games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (11 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
72% RJ Harvey receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Christian McCaffrey 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Purdy rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylen Waddle receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Christian McCaffrey rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Watkins receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Kittle receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bo Nix pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Brock Purdy pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jaylen Waddle 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Christian McCaffrey 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Mike Evans 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Mike Evans receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under J.K. Dobbins rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Pat Bryant receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bo Nix pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brock Purdy pass yds 249.5 Under· Pass Yds Under RJ Harvey 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under RJ Harvey 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD George Kittle 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Purdy pass yds 249.5 Over· Pass Yds Over RJ Harvey 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Bo Nix pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Pat Bryant receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mike Evans receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over J.K. Dobbins rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mike Evans 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Christian McCaffrey 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaylen Waddle 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Brock Purdy pass TD 2.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Bo Nix pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over George Kittle receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Watkins receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Christian McCaffrey rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylen Waddle receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brock Purdy rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over RJ Harvey receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Deebo Samuel Sr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mike Evans 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Purdy 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mac Jones pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Courtland Sutton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD J.K. Dobbins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nate Adkins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jaylen Waddle 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Troy Franklin 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kaelon Black 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Bo Nix 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyle Juszczyk 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD KhaDarel Hodge 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jordan Watkins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Lil'Jordan Humphrey 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jacob Cowing 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Luke Farrell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Demarcus Robinson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Evan Engram 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Marvin Mims Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Adam Trautman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Pat Bryant 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 San Francisco 49ers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 24/15 Hit
64% Both total runs 42.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 42.5 Under· Totals Under Denver Broncos Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 14/25 Miss
36% Team stats6 San Francisco 49ers team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Denver Broncos team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Denver Broncos Team rush yds 69.5 Over· Team Rush Yds San Francisco 49ers Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Denver Broncos Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San Francisco 49ers Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
