Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills — Game center Final NFL
Sep 18 (Fri) · 12:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Detroit Lions 39%
Buffalo Bills 61%
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Jahmyr Gibbs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 85% Detroit Lions within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 77% Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 85% Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 85%
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View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 85%
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View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Amon-Ra St. Brown 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
player stat56 JG Jahmyr Gibbs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
85% JA Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
85% Amon-Ra St. Brown 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DJ Moore 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Palmer 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jared Goff pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under James Cook rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Moore receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Johnson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Allen rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jahmyr Gibbs rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sam LaPorta receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jared Goff pass yds 299.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Sione Vaki rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josh Allen pass yds 294.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jahmyr Gibbs 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under James Cook 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Ty Johnson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Amon-Ra St. Brown 리셉션 7.5 Over· Receptions Over Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Amon-Ra St. Brown 리셉션 7.5 Under· Receptions Under Ty Johnson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jahmyr Gibbs 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Allen pass yds 294.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jared Goff pass yds 299.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Sione Vaki rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Allen rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jahmyr Gibbs rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sam LaPorta receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Johnson receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over James Cook rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DJ Moore receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jared Goff pass TD 2.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Dalton Kincaid 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sam LaPorta 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Frank Gore Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Isaac TeSlaa 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jameson Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dawson Knox 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ty Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sione Vaki 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keon Coleman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jackson Hawes 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jackson Meeks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Khalil Shakir 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Wright 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ray Davis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Winning margin8 Detroit Lions within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Detroit Lions within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Detroit Lions within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Detroit Lions within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Buffalo Bills wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Buffalo Bills wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Buffalo Bills wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Buffalo Bills Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 41/32 Hit
61% Both total runs 56.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 56.5 Under· Totals Under Detroit Lions Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 31/42 Miss
39% Team stats6 Detroit Lions team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Buffalo Bills team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Buffalo Bills Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Detroit Lions Team pass yds 299.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Detroit Lions Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Buffalo Bills Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
