Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Houston Texans 55%
Indianapolis Colts 45%
Locked before start
Houston Texans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 78% Houston Texans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 68% Jonathan Taylor 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 80% Showing 3 of 57 locked markets
Behind the probability same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 84%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 3TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.6TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 3 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.6 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.6TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 80%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 4TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 4 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Nico Collins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
player stat58 DM David Montgomery 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 3TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.6TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 3 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.6 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.6TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
84% JT Jonathan Taylor 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 4TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 4 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
80% Nico Collins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyler Warren 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dalton Schultz receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Downs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keenan Allen receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jonathan Taylor rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Xavier Hutchinson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nico Collins receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Woody Marks rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nico Collins 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Jones pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Deion Burks rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josh Downs 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under David Montgomery rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tyler Warren 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under C.J. Stroud pass yds 269.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Daniel Jones pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under C.J. Stroud pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Dalton Schultz 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Dalton Schultz 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over C.J. Stroud pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Daniel Jones pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over C.J. Stroud pass yds 269.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tyler Warren 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over David Montgomery rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deion Burks rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Downs 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Daniel Jones pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Nico Collins 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Woody Marks rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nico Collins receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Xavier Hutchinson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jonathan Taylor rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keenan Allen receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Downs receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dalton Schultz receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kayshon Boutte 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Daniel Jones 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Seth McGowan 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Woody Marks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ashton Dulin 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Deion Burks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Lewis Bond 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Downs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keenan Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cade Stover 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Marlin Klein 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Laquon Treadwell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jared Wayne 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Foster Moreau 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Andrew Ogletree 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Xavier Hutchinson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dalton Schultz 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jaylin Noel 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mo Alie-Cox 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD C.J. Stroud 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Winning margin8 Houston Texans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Houston Texans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Houston Texans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Indianapolis Colts wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Houston Texans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Indianapolis Colts wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Indianapolis Colts wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Indianapolis Colts wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Houston Texans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 17/20 Miss
55% Both total runs 41.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 41.5 Under· Totals Under Indianapolis Colts Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 19/18 Hit
45% Team stats6 Houston Texans team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Indianapolis Colts team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Houston Texans Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Indianapolis Colts Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Indianapolis Colts Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Houston Texans Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
