Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders — Game center Final NFL
Oct 4 (Sun) · 1:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Indianapolis Colts 54%
Washington Commanders 46%
Locked before start
Washington Commanders within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 82% Jonathan Taylor 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 74% Washington Commanders within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 74% Showing 3 of 30 locked markets
Behind the probability same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Indianapolis Colts Washington Commanders
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 74%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 4games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 4 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Josh Downs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacory Croskey-Merritt rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Washington Commanders within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
82% Washington Commanders within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Washington Commanders within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Washington Commanders within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Indianapolis Colts wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Indianapolis Colts wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Indianapolis Colts wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Indianapolis Colts wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat34 JT Jonathan Taylor 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 4games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 4 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
74% Josh Downs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacory Croskey-Merritt rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daniel Jones pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jonathan Taylor rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Antonio Williams receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Stefon Diggs receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Stefon Diggs 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Marcus Mariota pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Seth McGowan rush yds 24.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Antonio Williams 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Jones pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tyler Warren 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Tyler Warren 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Antonio Williams 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Daniel Jones pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Marcus Mariota pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Seth McGowan rush yds 24.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Stefon Diggs 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Stefon Diggs receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Antonio Williams receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jonathan Taylor rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Daniel Jones pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jacory Croskey-Merritt rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Downs receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyler Warren 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Daniel Jones 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Seth McGowan 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ashton Dulin 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Deion Burks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Downs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Laquon Treadwell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Andrew Ogletree 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mo Alie-Cox 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Indianapolis Colts Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 30/14 Hit
54% Both total runs 43.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 43.5 Under· Totals Under Washington Commanders Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 13/31 Miss
46% Team stats6 Indianapolis Colts team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Washington Commanders team runs 20.5 Over· Team Points Indianapolis Colts Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Indianapolis Colts Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Washington Commanders Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Washington Commanders Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
