Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals — Game center Final NFL
Oct 4 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Jacksonville Jaguars 44%
Cincinnati Bengals 56%
Locked before start
Cincinnati Bengals within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 81% Cincinnati Bengals within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 73% Nick Mullens pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71% Showing 3 of 56 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Jacksonville Jaguars Cincinnati Bengals
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Nick Mullens pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Joe Burrow pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Parker Washington receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Cincinnati Bengals within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Cincinnati Bengals within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Cincinnati Bengals within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Cincinnati Bengals within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat62 Nick Mullens pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Joe Burrow pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Parker Washington receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Brown rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brenton Strange receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jakobi Meyers receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bhayshul Tuten rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mike Gesicki receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Marr Chase 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Ja'Marr Chase receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tee Higgins receiving yds 84.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Rodriguez Jr. rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Samaje Perine rush yds 24.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tee Higgins 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Trevor Lawrence pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Joe Burrow pass yds 289.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Trevor Lawrence pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Parker Washington 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Brenton Strange 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Brenton Strange 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Parker Washington 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Trevor Lawrence pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Chase Brown 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Joe Burrow pass yds 289.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ja'Marr Chase 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Trevor Lawrence pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tee Higgins 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Tee Higgins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Samaje Perine rush yds 24.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Rodriguez Jr. rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tee Higgins receiving yds 84.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ja'Marr Chase receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ja'Marr Chase 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Mike Gesicki receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bhayshul Tuten rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chase Brown rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brenton Strange receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jakobi Meyers receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bhayshul Tuten 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Parker Washington receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trevor Lawrence 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Rodriguez Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Joe Burrow pass TD 2.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Parker Washington 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nick Mullens pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Josh Cameron 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brenton Strange 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mike Gesicki 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jakobi Meyers 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mitchell Tinsley 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Erick All 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dohnte Meyers 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nate Boerkircher 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brian Thomas Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tanner Hudson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Samaje Perine 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Quintin Morris 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nick Mullens 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Andrei Iosivas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Joe Burrow 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drew Sample 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ameer Abdullah 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Cincinnati Bengals Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 17/23 Miss
56% Both total runs 45.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 45.5 Under· Totals Under Jacksonville Jaguars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 22/18 Hit
44% Team stats6 Jacksonville Jaguars team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Cincinnati Bengals team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Cincinnati Bengals Team rush yds 64.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Jacksonville Jaguars Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Cincinnati Bengals Team pass yds 329.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Jacksonville Jaguars Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
