Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kansas City Chiefs 85%
Miami Dolphins 15%
Locked before start
Kansas City Chiefs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 85% Hit Miami Dolphins within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 75% Kansas City Chiefs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 59% Showing 3 of 51 locked markets
Behind the probability same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Kansas City Chiefs Miami Dolphins
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 71%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 4TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.6TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 4 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.6 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.6TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Rashee Rice 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Patrick Mahomes 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Kansas City Chiefs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 24/11 Hit
85% Both total runs 40.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 40.5 Under· Totals Under Miami Dolphins Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 10/25 Miss
15% Winning margin8 Miami Dolphins within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% Miami Dolphins within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Kansas City Chiefs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Miami Dolphins within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Kansas City Chiefs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Miami Dolphins within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Kansas City Chiefs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Kansas City Chiefs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat56 KI Kenneth Walker III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 4TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.6TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 4 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.6 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.6TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
71% Rashee Rice 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Patrick Mahomes 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Malik Willis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Malik Washington 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Caleb Douglas receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Malik Willis pass TD 0.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jalen Royals 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Rashee Rice receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Travis Kelce receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Malik Willis rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tyquan Thornton receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Miller receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kenneth Walker III rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Malik Washington receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Travis Kelce 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Patrick Mahomes pass yds 254.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ryan Miller 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emmett Johnson rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Malik Willis pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Travis Kelce 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Caleb Douglas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rashee Rice 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Patrick Mahomes pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Patrick Mahomes pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Rashee Rice 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Caleb Douglas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Malik Willis pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Emmett Johnson rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Patrick Mahomes pass yds 254.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Travis Kelce 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Malik Washington receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ryan Miller receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kenneth Walker III rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tyquan Thornton receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malik Willis rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Travis Kelce receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rashee Rice receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malik Willis pass TD 0.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Caleb Douglas receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malik Washington 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Herman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emmett Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ollie Gordon II 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyquan Thornton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cyrus Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kevin Coleman Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Caleb Douglas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Malik Washington 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Bell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jake Briningstool 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jaylen Wright 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Will Kacmarek 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Xavier Worthy 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Greg Dulcich 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brashard Smith 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Team stats6 Miami Dolphins team runs 13.5 Over· Team Points Kansas City Chiefs team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Miami Dolphins Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Kansas City Chiefs Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Miami Dolphins Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kansas City Chiefs Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
