Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Los Angeles Chargers —
Buffalo Bills —
Locked before start
Buffalo Bills Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 88% Hit Buffalo Bills wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 76% Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 80% Showing 3 of 34 locked markets
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Head to head Los Angeles Chargers Buffalo Bills
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Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 80%
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View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) DJ Moore 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Palmer 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Buffalo Bills Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 24/17 Hit
88% Both total runs 46.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 46.5 Over· Totals Over Los Angeles Chargers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 16/25 Miss
23% player stat60 JA Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
80% DJ Moore 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Palmer 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tre Harris receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Moore receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Johnson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Ladd McConkey receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ladd McConkey 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Allen rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Omarion Hampton rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ty Johnson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Alec Ingold receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Allen pass yds 254.5 Under· Pass Yds Under James Cook rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keaton Mitchell rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Justin Herbert pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Justin Herbert pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under James Cook 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Harris 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Harris 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Justin Herbert pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Omarion Hampton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Justin Herbert pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Josh Allen pass yds 254.5 Over· Pass Yds Over James Cook rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keaton Mitchell rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Johnson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Alec Ingold receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Omarion Hampton rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Allen rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ladd McConkey 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Ty Johnson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Ladd McConkey receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DJ Moore receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tre Harris receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Quentin Johnston 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dalton Kincaid 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ladd McConkey 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Frank Gore Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kimani Vidal 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dawson Knox 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD David Njoku 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ty Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keon Coleman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Oronde Gadsden II 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jackson Hawes 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brenen Thompson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Khalil Shakir 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Derius Davis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Charlie Kolar 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ray Davis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Justin Herbert 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Marquez Valdes-Scantling 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keaton Mitchell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Winning margin8 Buffalo Bills wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
승자 probability same 연속 score차 model, 함의된 avg score 차는 10.2 pts이다. 잠정value이고 독립적인 score predicted 아니다. (Same continuous margin model as Win Probability; implied mean margin 10.2 points. Provisional; not an independent score prediction.)
76% Buffalo Bills wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Los Angeles Chargers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Los Angeles Chargers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Los Angeles Chargers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Los Angeles Chargers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Team stats6 Los Angeles Chargers team runs 16.5 Over· Team Points Buffalo Bills team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points Buffalo Bills Team pass yds 274.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Los Angeles Chargers Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Buffalo Bills Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Los Angeles Chargers Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
