Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings — Game center Scheduled NFL
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 8:05 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Miami Dolphins 25%
Minnesota Vikings 75%
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 2games 1TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 2 current-season appearances, 1 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Carson Wentz pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Malik Willis rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Minnesota Vikings Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
75% Both total runs 34.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 34.5 Under· Totals Under Miami Dolphins Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
25% Winning margin8 Miami Dolphins within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Minnesota Vikings wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Miami Dolphins within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Minnesota Vikings wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Miami Dolphins within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Minnesota Vikings wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Miami Dolphins within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Minnesota Vikings wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat49 KM Kyler Murray pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 2games 1TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 2 current-season appearances, 1 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
71% Carson Wentz pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Malik Willis rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Malik Willis pass TD 0.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jordan Addison receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.J. Hockenson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Miller receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Mason rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Malik Washington receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aaron Jones rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under T.J. Hockenson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Carson Wentz pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Malik Willis pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Malik Washington 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Malik Washington 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Malik Willis pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Carson Wentz pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aaron Jones rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over T.J. Hockenson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordan Mason rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Malik Washington receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jauan Jennings 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ryan Miller receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Addison receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.J. Hockenson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malik Willis rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Malik Willis pass TD 0.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jordan Mason 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Carson Wentz pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Kyler Murray pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over DJ Herman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Demond Claiborne 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ollie Gordon II 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Aaron Jones 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ryan Miller 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DeeJay Dallas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD T.J. Hockenson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jordan Addison 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Malik Willis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Myles Price 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tai Felton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kevin Coleman Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Bell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jaylen Wright 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Malik Washington 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Will Kacmarek 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Carson Wentz 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyler Murray 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Greg Dulcich 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Team stats6 Miami Dolphins team runs 13.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Vikings team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Vikings Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Miami Dolphins Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Minnesota Vikings Team pass yds 159.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Miami Dolphins Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
